易博平台

深度解析:光伏大硅片之争 谁主沉浮?
栏目:专题报道 发布时间:2019-09-11 15:24
  •                                                                                                                                                                       (
  • 来自:公众号一图胜千研 毅达融京李安峰

guangfuxingyeshiyigejishudiedaihenkuaidexingye,zaijishulujingtakong、luohou,doukenengdailaizhimingdeweixian,erjishudelingxianzhewangwangkeyihuodechaoedelirun。

zaiguangfuguipianlingyu,jishangyilunjingangxianbiangezhihou,guangfuguipiandebianda、bianbochengweigedachangshangzhugongdejishufangxiang。

易博平台 womenxianhuiguyixiaguangfuguipianchicundefazhanlishi:

 

//   1、光伏硅片一直在变大   //
2012年前,存在100-156mm等多种形状、尺寸的硅片,行业标准不统一;

 

易博平台 2015 nianyouwugezhuyaochangjiatongyibiaozhunwei 156.75haomi(ji m2 guipian)dao 2018 nianxingyezhuliudanjingguipianyiquanbucaiyong 156.75 haomichicunsheji,dangqianshizhanlvzai85%,guipianchicunxiaotinglehaojinian;

2019nian6yue,longjituichude 166 haomiguipian,jiangguipianchicuntuidaoledangqianchanyelianshengchanxianderongyujixian,jianghufengyunzaiqi;

 

2019nian8yue,zhonghuantuichu210haomidedaguipian,jiangdachicuntuidaolejizhi,shixianlesangefouding(foudingxianyouchanpin、foudingxianyoujishu、foudingxianyouziwo),「da」youdaoli。

站在当下时点看未来,在单晶硅片大尺寸的前沿领域,形成了以隆基主推的166大硅片和以中环主推的210大硅片两大阵营。

 

daguipianzhizhengzaiqifengyun,sheizhuchenfu?

 

//   2、大有大的好处   //
单晶硅光伏产业链,包括硅片、电池片、组件、电站等环节,核心原料就是硅,随着硅成本的不断下降,非硅成本的比重在加大。如果我们倒推到最终环节,金属硅的成本只占电站成本的1.9%,第一性原理一直在起作用,如果算到单晶硅片环节,硅片成本只占16.6%。

 

 

womenxianfuxiyixiadanjingguiguangfudechanyelian,duigehuanjiechengbenyougezhiguanyinxiang:

大尺寸对产业链成本的降低,不仅在于自身成本能低多少,更重要的在于在于因大而带来的非硅成本的摊薄(上图中无底色部分的成本),行业术语叫「通量价值」,使得产业链各环节的相对竞争力增强,投资收益提升。

 

womenyanzhechanyelianniliuershanglaikankan:

1、dianzhanjianshehuanjie

shiyongdaguipiangaogonglvzujiankeyijianshaozhijia、huiliuxiang、dianlan、tudidengchengben,congertanbodanwaxitongchengben。lilunshang(jiushixingjiabigongshi),danweigonglvdezujianjiagedaguipianbixiaoguipianjiagegenggao,longjidem6xiangduim2you6-8fendeyijia,zhonghuancesuanm12you2maodeyijiakongjian,daguipiandezujianduitouzifanggengyouxiyinli。

 

genjuzhonghuangufendecesuan,210bi166zaidianzhanjianshehuanjiejieyue12%deboschengben(chuzujianyiwaidexitongchengben),xiangyingdelcoe(pingzhunhuanengyuanchengben)jiangdi4.1%。

2、组件环节

 

 

yongdaguipiankeyitanbobiankuang、boli、jiexianhe、rengongdengchengben,suoyishiyongdaguipiandedianchiduizujianchangshanggengyouxiyinli。m6xiangduim2zujianchengbenjiangdi2.81%,m12jiangdi16.8%,xiangdangyum6duim2jiangdi5fendechengben,m12jiangdi2mao3dechengben。

3、dianchihuanjie

 

 

易博平台 yongdaguipiankeyitanboyinjiang、fuzhusheshi、dianli、rengongdengchengben,suoyidaguipianduidianchishengchanshanggengjuxiyinli。m6xiangduim2dianchichengbenjiangdi6.15%,m12jiangdi25.56%。

易博平台 butongguigeguipianduizujianjidianchishengchanhuanjiedechengbenjiangdi

daguipianbujindailaigehuanjiechengbendexiajiang,haizaizujiangonglv、zhuanhuanlvdengzhibiaoshangmingxiantisheng:

易博平台 yijuhua:dayoudadehaochu,lilunshang210bi166gengyouyoushi。

 

zaijishuluojishangxingdetong,shifouzaishangyeluojishangyechenglini?

 

//   3、隆基的商业反击   //

congluojishangjiang,dichengbenduigaochengbendechanpintidaishidaqushi。danshishangyeshijierutongshengwujie,youshihouyeweibishiqiangzheshengcun,yekenengshishizheshengcun。

 

易博平台 zaijishucengmianchuyuxiangduiruoshidelongji,ruhefanji?

guipiandeshengtaihuanjingshejishangyoudeshebei、zhongyougehuanjiechanxiangengxinhuandai,xiayoukaifashangdexuanze。congdangqianchanxiandegaizaoqianlikan,m6 yidabufenshebeiyunxuchicundejixian,suoyi:yuxianyouchanxiande「jianrongxing」,shilongjidezhuyaozhuashou。

易博平台 xijiejiubushuole,julianggelizi:

1、danjinglu

dangqianzhuliudanjingchangjiarepingneijingjunliuyoujiaodayuliang。m2 guipianwaijingwei 210 mm,m6 guipianwaijingwei 223 mm,dangqianzhuliudanjinglurepingneijingzai 270mm zuoyou,lazhim6guibangwanquankexing,qiewuxuzhongdagaizao。erm12deguipianzhijingshi295mm,wufajianrongxianyoudedanjinglu。

2、dianchichang

易博平台 dianchishengchanhuanjiezhongdekuosanhechenji(guanshi pecvd)shebeixuyaozaimifengdeguandaozhongjinxingshengchan。dangqianzaiyunhezaijiande percchanxianjunjiyuchuantongdanjingguipianchicunjinxingsheji,xingyefankuisuonengchulideguipianbianzhangjixianwei 166 haomi。ruguoshangyouguipianshengjiwei 210 haomi,dianchichangshangzhinengtoujianquanxinchanxian。

yijuhua:166yudangqianshengtaijianrong,210xuyaozhongjianchanyeshengtai。

zhongjianchanyelianzaijishushang「nan」,zaishijianshang「man」,danxiaolv「gao」。longjizhengshizhuazhule210zhongjianchanyeliande「man」yu「nan」deruodian,jiasulechanyekuozhangbufa。

longjidecelveshi「zoubierendelu,rangbierenwulukezou」。

 

1、zaiguipianduan

易博平台 longjijiakuailechannengkuozhangdebufa,yuanjihua2021niankuozhangdao65gw,zaizhonghuantuichu210zhihou,jinchengjiakuai,ba65gwdechannengkuozhangtiqiandaole2020nian。

 

易博平台 2、zaidianchipianyuzujianhuanjiejiasu166deshentou

longjizishendechannengguihua,dao2020niandi,longjidedianchi、zujiandabufenchannengdoujiangqiehuancheng166mmchicun,duiyuzaijianchanxianruyinchuan5gwdanjingdianchichanxian,jiangzhijieshejichengshiyongyu166mmchicun,congshangtukeyikanchu,longjidedianchi、zujianchanneng2020nianfenbiedadao15gw、25gw。

zhuliudianchipianchangshangzhong,aixu、runyangyuedadengdouzaikuochanhuogaijian166chanxian。longjigufenbiaoshi,genjumuqiangenkehugoutongdejieguolaikan,leguangujizai2020niandeyijidumo,m6dianchichanxiandechannengjiangjiejin46gw,zheijiangshiyigefeichangkeguandeshuzi。

zaizujianhuanjie,chulelongjileye、atesiyijingmingquezhutui166chicunwai,qitayixiezujianchangyekaishichangshi166chicun。

 

xueqiushangzongjiedeyifen166touzijinzhanqingdan

3、zhuazhupercdianchichanxiankuozhangzhouqi

 

易博平台 youyudanjingduiduojingdetidai,yijidianchijishudeshengji,danjingpercdianchizai2018-2019nianshitouzigaofengqi,xinzengchannengdadaole80gwyishang,leijichannengdadao113gw。

 

shenmegainian?zhongguoguangfuxingyexiehuileguanyuji2019nianguangfuxinzengzhuangjirongliangwei120gw,yejiushishuodanjingpercdianchidechannengdadaolequanqiu2020nianxuqiuliangde94%。daliangtouzishidexianyoudedianchichangshangkuozhandenenglishouxian、donglibuzu。

易博平台 longjiyongsuduzujizhonghuan,zhonghuanruheyingdui?

 

 

//   4、中环的突围   //

congqianmiandefenxikeyikanchu,zhonghuande210guipianduiyudangqiandechanyelianshiyouzhongdadianfude,duixiayoudianchipian、zujianchangshangzaichengben、shouyifangmiandouyouxiyinli。

 

zaisuanwanbierendezhangzhihou,zhonghuanyedesuansuanzijidezhang。

 

zaiguipianshengchanhuanjie,yecunzaijudadejingjijiazhiheqianli,hexinzaiyushengchanxiaolvdetishenghedanweitouzidexiajiang。

易博平台 chengbenxiaolvtishengdehexinluojizaiyu「datouliao」「gaolasu」「dinenghao」dengfangmian

mianduirucidadeyouhuo,zhonghuanxianranbuhuishushou。tichu2020nian16gwde210guipiantouchanjihua,lianhechanyeliandehuobanjiasu210guipiandechanyehua。

 

易博平台 dangran,zheigeqianyebuhaozhuan,zhonghuanyaoshixiandaguipiandezhuduohaochu,haixuyaokuaguojidaomenjian:

1、shengchanhuanjiedejishu

zaijianshe210guipiandeguochengzhong,bukebimiandedailaihenduonanti,zaiguipianshengchanduanzhuyaoshi「zhong」he「da」,zhenggeshengchanshebeixuyaozhongxinsheji,erqieyouyutiliangda,henduohuanjiewufarengongcaozuo,jiuxuyaogengduodezidonghuashebeiyuzhinengzhuangbei。

易博平台 congzhonghuan816dahuidefankuikan,shengchanduandenantiyinggaiyijingjiejuele,erqieyiyoushiyanxianzaiyunxingzhong。zhonghuanzai816dahuishang,lalailehenduozhuzhenhuoban,baokuojingshengjidian、huanbokeji、zhongwei、meiguoyingyongcailiao、ribenmingdezhushihuishedeng,shangshudejishunantidouyouzhichifang。

2、chanyelianpeitao

zheishishichangzuidanxindedifang,210guipianxuyaoquanchanyelianpeihe,youyufabushijianjiaoduan,muqianhaiweifaxiankuochan210chanxiandedianchixianhezujianchangshang,dancongdiaoyanqingkuangkan,yinggaiyouyidingdexiayouhezuohuobanle。

weiyingduichanyelianpeitaodenanti,zhonghuantichulezhezhongfangan,zaim12dafanweituichuzhiqian,yongrouxingchanxian,tuichule m10 he m9 guigededaguipianchanpin,fenbieduiying 200 haomihe 192 haomibianzhang,jiaoduibiaochanpinfenbiezengjiamianji 45.9%he 46.2%。zhezhongfanganshiyudangqianshengtaijianrongde。

zaitiaogaozhiqian,xianyongtiaobandianyixia,shigemingzhidexuanze。

genjuzhonghuandeguihua,2020nianleijishengchan16gwdem12daguipian。zhonghuannengfoutuwei,womenshimuyidai。

服务热线
+86-021-50388883
凤凰游戏平台|官网_欢迎您 龙8游戏平台|官网_欢迎您 大资本平台|官网_欢迎您 新锦江国际平台|官网_欢迎您 mg游戏平台|官网_欢迎您 新锦江平台|官网_欢迎您 金龙会平台|官网_欢迎您 博天下平台|官网_欢迎您 尊龙在线平台|官网_欢迎您 好运平台|官网_欢迎您 mg游戏官网在线平台|官网_欢迎您 购彩信誉平台|官网_欢迎您 正规网赌靠谱实体平台|官网_欢迎您 网络彩票代理平台|官网_欢迎您 幸运赛车平台|官网_欢迎您 守信娱乐网址娱乐场|官网_欢迎您 淘金娱乐老平台|官网_欢迎您 菲律宾网赌合法平台|官网_欢迎您 乐赢线上第一平台|官网_欢迎您 一号彩票注册平台|官网_欢迎您